All Change? A guide to the new Government

So, the electorate has spoken and we have a new Labour Government (note: not the same thing as a New Labour Government).

Whichever Prime Minister had walked through the doors of 10 Downing Street on Friday 5 July, they would have faced the same economic reality, being the worst public finances since the second World War. And that reality would have limited the policy options facing any Government.

But it is clear that, within those financial constraints, Keir Starmer and the Labour Government have a radically different policy vision than that of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition (aka the old government). So, as a nation, we will be setting out in quite a different direction in the coming weeks, months and years. And that will mean housing, regeneration and development stakeholders operating within a different policy framework. You’d best get ready for Change (with a capital ‘C’).

The Labour General Election Manifesto, launched on 13 June, had a very simple title, Change. Before we get into the detail, here are three key themes in what it said.

• Limited (as in few solid commitments): You’ll have read a lot of press reports about the Manifesto being short on promises and short on detail. We’ve read the document, cover to cover, and those reports were spot on. It was short on promises and, where they were made, they were short on detail. In the campaign, the Labour Party didn’t try to counter that perception. Quite the opposite. Shadow ministers frequently said that the Manifesto was intentionally drafted so as not to put a Labour Government in the ‘over promise and under deliver’ position.

Our takeaway is that, in the limited instances where a manifesto commitment has been given, our new Government will move heaven and earth to be in a position to confirm they have met that specific commitment. And they will be very open to anyone with practical delivery routes to achieve that.

• Growth (as in front and centre): Prior to the 2001 General Election Tony Blair said “Our top priority was, is and always will be education, education, education”. If Keir Starmer spoke with the same rhetorical flourishes he would likely say “Our top priority is and always will be economic growth, economic growth and economic growth”. Many previous Labour Manifestos have focussed on making life fairer, by direct redistribution of wealth or by the provision of better state provided services to those who can not afford them in the private market. Labour have not given up on their quest for greater fairness. But what this Manifesto focusses on, above all else, is securing economic growth.

If any sector wants the Government’s support or attention they would be well advised to speak to the Government in terms of what their sector will do to drive economic growth. Housing may well bring many many valuable social and community benefits. But it’s the economic growth that it can help to deliver that will be key.

• Money (as in lack of): There is no more state money. The Affordable Homes Programme only gets one mention, and that is principally to say it won’t get any more money. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be changes, but those changes will need to operate within the existing public financial envelope. The text centred around the building of 1.5m homes in the next five years is almost exclusively focussed on planning reform, with no suggestion of additional government funding other than a very specific (and very small) commitment to fund an additional 300 planners.

Anyone with any realistic mechanisms to lever in private money to deliver government goals (e.g. pensions funds investing in social housing) will likely receive a heroes welcome at both No. 10 and No. 11 Downing Street.

A number of us here at Devonshires have, over the last six weeks, been looking at the Labour Party’s Manifesto, the work of the party’s National Policy Forum and the output of their six Policy Commissions, the 5 Missions and 6 First Steps, what was said on the campaign trail and what key members of the then shadow cabinet said in the last Parliament. And, in this series of articles to be published in the coming days, we present our initial views on the changes that our clients will be facing in this new world.

All articles within this series are collated within our article hub which can be found here: All Change? A guide to the new Government